To calculate this probability we must take into account that there is the same probability that any of the 3 urns is chosen.
This probability is:
P (U1) = P (U2) = P (U3) = 1/3
Urn 1 contains 7 black and 3 red marbles
Urn 2 contains 2 black and 8 marbles network
Urn 3 contains 5 black marbles and 5 red marbles.
The probability of obtaining a black marble in Urn 1 is 7/10.
The probability of obtaining a black marble in Urn 2 is 2/10
The probability of obtaining a black marble in Urn 3 is 5/10.
Then we look for the probability of obtaining a black marble from urn 1 or a black marble from urn 2 or a black marble from urn 3. This is:
P (U1yB) + P (U2yB) + P (U3yB)
So:
(1/3) * (7/10) + (1/3) * (2/10) + (1/3) * (5/10) = 0,2333 + 0,0667 + 0,1667 = 0, 4667.
The probability that it is a black marble is 46.67%